If you’re able to break through all of the AI noise, you’ll find that quantum computing is generating just as much buzz. While it’s still largely in its research phase, the promise of quantum computing is compelling. In theory, quantum computers could perform complex calculations at speeds that traditional systems can’t match. This could open the door to faster drug discovery, better performing AI, optimizing supply chains, better financial modeling, and more. Alongside the promise raises a big concern. What does this mean for encryption?
Why Encryption Matters
Encryption secures nearly every digital transaction. Logging into a bank account, sending private messages, or completing online payments all rely on cryptography to keep data safe. Today’s encryption (RSA, ECC) depends on mathematical problems that are practically impossible for classical computers to solve. This assumption starts to shift when quantum computing enters the mix.
The Quantum Threat
Quantum computing changes the equation. Using qubits, quantum computers can explore many possibilities simultaneously. The potential threat isn’t new. In 1994, Peter Shor was the first to describe the threat that quantum computers could pose to traditional security systems. Today, Shor’s algorithm illustrates how a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could efficiently factor large numbers, potentially breaking public key systems like RSA and ECC.
That could put at risk everyday safeguards like two-factor authentication, passwords, and even the cryptographic protections underlying Bitcoin and other blockchains. Bitcoin and other digital assets are widely marketed as “unhackable”, yet their security hinges entirely on cryptography that could, in theory, be broken by a quantum computer. Some speculative projections, like the “doomsday clock”, claim that quantum computers could, as early as 2028, reach a point where they could decrypt Bitcoin’s encryption entirely, posing a dramatic threat to digital assets and financial infrastructure.
It’s important to emphasize that these projects are based on future capabilities that quantum machines don’t have yet. Current research quantum systems are experimental, and most experts agree that computers powerful enough to crack real-world encryption are likely still 10-20 years away.
Why This Matters Today
A decade or two is arguably far away, but its long-term impact on encryption is already influencing how organizations think about security. Sensitive data often needs to be protected for decades, so information encrypted today could become vulnerable in the future. The reality has prompted governments, organizations that set technical standards, and technology leaders to begin considering how quantum-safe approaches could be integrated over time.
Who’s Working on Quantum Computing?
While large-scale quantum computers are not here yet, major tech companies like IBM, Google, Microsoft, Intel, and IonQ, along with research institutions, are actively exploring the space. Universities and national labs around the world are contributing to both hardware and software breakthroughs. These combined efforts are driving progress toward practical quantum systems and quantum-safe security solutions.
Preparing for a Quantum Future
Fortunately, encryption isn’t standing still. Researchers are actively developing quantum-safe or post-quantum cryptography to resist attacks from both quantum and classical computers. These approaches rely on mathematical structures that remain difficult for quantum systems to solve and can integrate with existing communications networks.
IBM has been active in this space. Its quantum cryptography research includes quantum key distribution (QKD), which focuses on securely exchanging encryption keys rather than encrypting data itself. QKD uses the physical properties of quantum systems to generate a shared secret key that can then be used with traditional symmetric encryption.
Because quantum states change when they are observed, QKD makes interception detectable rather than silent. While the approach has been proven in both lab and real-world environments, practical challenges like distance and infrastructure have limited widespread adoption, according to IBM.
Looking Ahead
Quantum computers capable of breaking today’s encryption are still decades away, but the pace of technological progress, as seen in how quickly AI has advanced, makes it worth paying attention. Organizations that handle sensitive or long-lived data should be aware of the potential impact and start considering how quantum-safe approaches might fit into their long-term security planning.